COP29: Success or failure?
- William Gumede
Climate deal may falter as climate sceptic Trump assumes the US Presidency in January 2025. He has threatened to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement.
COP29 came to a fragile agreement, in which rich countries pledged $300bn a year for climate finance, however, the funding promises from rich countries are too little, and the deal ultimately may be short-lived, as Donald Trump, once he assumes the presidency may up-end it.
Annual climate summits, called conferences of the parties (COP) is organised under the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) signed in 1992, the original treaty on which the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is based.
In 1992, the UN established a framework whereby 23 industrial countries, with the European Union, who historically were the largest contributors to emissions have a responsibility to contribute to climate finance.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep the rise in the "global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".
Agreements among almost 200 countries need to be unanimous before action can be taken. The UN climate summit, COP29, took place in Baku, the Azerbaijan capital.
After two weeks of tense negotiations, the talks were on the brink of collapse. The climate summit overran by more than 32 hours. The talks did not collapse, because many angry developing countries decided in the end not to stand in the way of a deal, they did not agree with, to prevent it from full collapse.
The disputes that almost derailed the talks were between developed and oil-rich countries – responsible for most of the climate change but being unenthusiastic of meeting their minimum promises or giving more funding to tackle climate change. Rich developed and oil-exporting developing countries are reluctant to agree to targets to reduce the use of fossil fuels because it could undermine their economic growth, development and industrialisation.
Just before the final COP29 agreement was reached representatives for the Alliance of Small Island States and Least Developed Countries walked out of the talks, expressing anger at any earlier draft offer for climate change finance of $250bn from rich nations.
“We came here to this COP for a fair deal. We feel that we haven’t been heard, and there’s a deal to be made, and we have not been consulted ... We’ve walked out because at the moment, we don’t feel that we are being heard,” said Cedric Schuster, the chairman of the group of AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States) and LDCs (Least Developed Countries).
Developing nations contribute the least to climate change but bear a disproportionate burden from it, asked developed countries to contribute $1.3trillion in climate change finance. However, developed countries pledged only $300bn a year by 2035; and promised to raise $1.3tn a year from a combination of state, multilateral, business and philanthropic institutions by 2035.
Many developing countries said the COP29 deal was wholly inadequate. Leena Nanda, India’s delegate said the developed country climate finance pledge was “abysmally poor” and a “paltry sum”.
The African group of countries in a statement said the promises by the developed countries was “too little, too late”. The chairperson of the Alliance of Small Island States, Cedric Schuster, asked: “How can you expect us to go back to the women, men, and children of our countries with a poor deal?”.
In a letter to the UN, key global leaders, including a former UN secretary general and former UN climate head said COP as an institution, its structures and processes were "no longer fit for purpose" to competently manage climate change negotiations and needed an urgent overhaul. The authors of the letter included former UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon, former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and former president of Ireland Mary Robinson.
The letter stated countries that oppose phasing out fossil fuels, should not host critical climate negotiations. "Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," said the signatories of the letter to the UN.
The COP processes are not relevant anymore. COP negotiations are dominated by developed and oil-rich countries. For example, the small islands and least developed countries walked out of the negotiations, because they felt that developing countries were not sufficiently included in the negotiations, with richer countries being accused of mostly talking among themselves.
Oil and gas exporters opposed faster targets for countries to reduce emissions and transition to clean energy. The Arab Group of nations specifically opposed the setting of targets to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has been criticised for persistently slowing down UN climate summits to reduce fossil fuel emission. The Azerbaijani presidency circulated updates to the negotiating text on the just transition work program (JTWP), with “tracked changes” from the previously circulated version. The Guardian newspaper in London reported that the document showed edits, to soften emission reduction targets, were made directly by Basel Alsubaity, who is from the Saudi ministry of energy. It was not sent to other countries to edit, according to the Guardian.
In 2023, the Climate Social Science Network, a civil society group, in a report criticised Saudi Arabia for the country having “a 30-year record of obstruction and delay, protecting its national oil and gas sector and seeking to ensure UN climate talks achieve as little as possible, as slowly as possible”. Saudi Arabia, the report claims, despite directly affected by climate change, with “increased temperatures across Saudi Arabia and falling groundwater supplies”, Saudi Arabia, frequently pushes back on efforts to curb fossil fuels at UN climate talks.
A week after COP29, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil exporters tried to block a United Nations deal to tackle plastic pollution, negotiators said. Delegates from more than 170 nations after COP29 engaged in negotiations in Busan, South Korea, to draft a global plastic treaty address plastic waste.
The major producers of petroleum, used to make most of the world’s plastic, opposed measures such as curbs on excessive plastic production that would tackle plastic pollution. The Saudis and petroleum producing group also oppose a draft treaty that would list and phase out chemicals present in plastic that are deemed harmful to the environment and to health.
It was reported by the New York Times that Saudi Arabia, along with its allies, tried to delete paragraphs from the draft plastic treaty text on which countries should finance the costs of implementing the plastic pollution agreement.
China and India are classified as developing countries, dating back to 1992 when the UN framework convention on climate change was signed. This means they have no obligation to provide climate finance to poorer countries or to cut greenhouse emissions. Classified as developing countries, they can receive financial assistance for climate change, just as any poor developing country. Many poorer developing countries have objected to China and India’s classification as developing countries when it comes to climate change obligations.
China is the world’s second biggest economy and the biggest fossil CO? emitter. India is the world’s fifth largest economy and the third largest fossil CO? emitter.
Balarabe Abbas Lawal, Nigeria’s environment minister at COP29 complained: “China and India cannot be classified in the same category as Nigeria and other African countries. They should also commit in trying to support us (poorer developing countries). They should also come and make some contribution (to climate finance for poorer countries).”
There are fears that Donald Trump, a climate sceptic, when he assumes the US Presidency in January 2025, will refuse the US contributing to climate finance. Trump says global warming is a hoax. Trump has threatened to withdraw the US from the 2015 Paris agreement that establishes a time-table for countries to deal with climate change.
Trump may not honour the US pledges for climate finance contributions. Importantly, Trump may strengthen the global forces that does not belief in climate change, opposes providing finance for climate change and opposes the reduce use of fossil fuels. Ultimately, the progress made at COP20 may be rolled back; and the COP29 deal may collapse under a Trump presidency.
William Gumede is Associate Professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg)